In June 2007, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published the three-part UN Climate Report, on which around 2,500 researchers from 124 countries had worked for years. It is based on around 40 computer simulations. For the first time, it was agreed that humans are to blame for climate change (although this is still disputed in some places to this day). The highly developed countries are responsible for heating up the atmosphere (global warming) and "exporting" the effects. The main causes are rapid population growth, increasing consumption of fossil fuels, deforestation and urbanisation.
Causes and general effects
The relentless burning of fossil fuels such as petrol, oil or coal produces huge quantities of additional carbon dioxide, which causes the so-called greenhouse effect. It is contained in the earth's atmosphere as a trace gas with a volume share of around 0.038%. This proportion, which at first glance appears to be extremely small, is repeatedly and wrongly used by sceptics as an argument that the (human) contribution in the air is so small that it does not affect the climate. It is generally assumed that a small amount has only a small effect. However, this is not the case. In many regions of the world, a decrease in frost days and an increase in days with extremely high temperatures has been observed in recent decades. This was particularly the case in Central and Northern Europe, the USA, Canada, China, Australia and New Zealand. In the middle and northern latitudes, especially in the northern hemisphere, the frequency of heavy precipitation has increased significantly in the second half of the 20th century. In contrast, some regions of Africa and Asia are experiencing increasingly severe droughts and desertification.
Since industrialisation, the average temperature has risen by +0.7 to +0.8 °Celsius, with +0.6 °Celsius being attributable to the past 30 years alone. By 2100, global temperatures will probably rise twice as fast as in the last century. Eleven of the past twelve years have been among the twelve warmest since records began in 1850. In the best-case scenario, the Earth's surface will warm by 1.1 to 2.9 degrees by 2100; in the worst-case scenario, the temperature will rise by 2.4 to 6.4 degrees. An average temperature rise of 1.8 to 4 degrees Celsius is predicted. For the most favourable scenario, a rise in sea level of 18 to 38 centimetres was calculated. In the worst-case scenario, it could rise by up to 59 centimetres. Floods, crop failures and hurricanes will increase. Around a fifth of animal and plant species are threatened with extinction.
Effects on viticulture
The climate has a significant influence on grapevines and wine quality. Therefore, climate change naturally has an impact on viticulture, although according to recent research results, this impact is assumed to be lower for grapevines than for other agricultural crops. Records of climate values and viticulture-relevant data such as grape harvest times, yields and quality of vintages have existed in Europe for over a thousand years. During this period, there have always been fluctuations and...
